Reproduction is essential for forests to recover from disturbance and adapt to climate change, yet it is often overlooked in climate impact assessments. Our new study, published in Ecology Letters, shows that climate warming has likely already reduced the natural year-to-year variation in seed production of European beech (‘masting’), with declines of up to ~54% under current conditions. Looking ahead, these losses could become even more severe, reaching up to ~83% under moderate future warming scenarios. This matters because strong fluctuations in seed production help trees pollinate successfully and overwhelm seed predators, ensuring enough viable seeds are produced. Importantly, the strongest effects are expected at the colder edges of the species’ range. Thus, contrary to common assumptions, cooler regions and high elevations appear to offer no safe haven: reduced seed production is likely to limit forest regeneration, species movement, and long-term forest resilience as the climate continues to warm.
Read the paper here!
Ecology letters: No refuge for European beech reproduction at the cold edge
